Category: Housekeeping
Posted by Gordon Trowbridge on Wed, May 14, 2008 at 11:33 PMA recap, and a brief respite
Well. It's been quite a day in Michigan, politics wise, from Barack Obama's morning tour of a Sterling Heights auto plant to John Edwards' big endorsement to what must now and forever be known as "Sweetiegate."
There will be more coverage of Obama's Wednesday's visit online soon on detnews.com as well as our elections page. There will be no morning line posted Thursday or Friday -- yes, it's time to take a couple days off -- but we'll pick things back up bright and early on Monday morning.
Category: Morning line
Posted by Gordon Trowbridge on Wed, May 14, 2008 at 6:45 AMThe morning line: May 14 edition
As he tours Chrysler's Sterling Stamping Plant today on his first visit to Detroit in 10 months, those watching Sen. Barack Obama will naturally think of the May 2007 speech to the Detroit Economic Club in which Obama laid out a tough line against the domestic auto industry. The speech has been hard to ignore -- Obama regularly has referred to it in speeches and TV ads as a moment of powerful truth-telling in a hostile environment.
But Obama supporters might think back to another Michigan appearance, his last in public: a candidates' forum at the NAACP's national convention in Detroit last July. In many ways, that appearance -- a powerful performance before a clearly friendly audience -- turned Obama from an interesting political phenomenon into a serious contender for the nomination.
Obama "seemed to have found his stride" the Chicago Sun-Times wrote at the time, noting -- as did much of the coverage -- that Obama had seemed halting and hesitant in a previous appearance at Howard University, a traditionally black college where the African-American audience also seemed eager to hear soaring rhetoric. Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore's 2000 campaign, pronounced: "Obama is finally hitting his groove. He is sharing a personal narrative and spouting a record of achievement that distinguishes and defines him."
The Obama campaign has video of his opening remarks available on YouTube; it's an Obama we're accustomed to seeing now, and that Michigan will glimpse tonight at Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids. But, difficult as it is to remember just 10 months later, that powerful speaker is not always the Obama we saw in early campaign appearances.
Here's what else is happening in politics today:
STARTING BEHIND: The Wall Street Journal takes a look at Obama's Michigan campaign, or lack thereof, and the the hurdles he will have to overcome to keep Michigan in the Democratic column.
DOES IT MATTER? Sen. Hillary Clinton's blowout win in West Virginia won't help her all that much in her longshot quest for the nomination. But the Associated Press's Nedra Pickler -- who knows a bit about Michigan politics -- looks at West Virginia, looks at Macomb County, and asks: Should Obama worry?
THE RACE VOTE: Time's Michael Grunwald uses exclaimation points to emphasize some some uncomfortable truths about the West Virginia vote: "One in four Clinton supporters essentially admitted to pollsters that they cast racist votes! Half the voters said Obama at least 'somewhat' shares the crackpot views of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright -- and these were Democratic voters!"
MEETING WITH THE SENATORS: Congressional Quarterly watches from the gallery as Michigan Sens. Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow meet on the Senate floor with Obama and Clinton.
I'M SORRY: The Rev. John Hagee, Sen. John McCain's own preacher problem, apologizes to Catholics for his ant-Catholic remarks.
MAYOR WATCH: The City Council's decision on Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick: kick him out, or at least try. The council's vote puts Gov. Jennifer Granholm in an awkward position.
Category: Congress
Posted by Gordon Trowbridge on Tue, May 13, 2008 at 11:01 PMAnother GOP congressional loss
Republicans may look at tonight's West Virginia primary and see potential weaknesses in Sen. Barack Obama that they might be able to exploit in the fall. But another election, farther south, may be just as meaningful.
Democrat Travis Childers has won a Mississippi congressional seat in a special election against Republican Greg Davis. It's the third special-election loss of the cycle for Republicans in a heavily Republican district -- President Bush won almost 60 percent of the vote there in 2004 -- and then second in which the GOP's attempt to tie the Democratic candidate to Obama has failed to bring a win.
The National Republican Congressional Committee -- House Republicans' election arm -- spent more than $1 million in the Mississippi, mostly on television ads trying to connect Childers to Obama and his controversial pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. A similar attempt failed last week in a Louisiana special election, also in a heavily Republican district.
The GOP hope has been that Wright and Obama's "bitter" comments about small-town America would make him toxic in rural and exurban districts, damaging Democratic hopes to expand the party's congressional majorities. It's hard to see much evidence for that hope after Tuesday night -- let alone for the hope that Obama might be a useful foil in less conservative districts such as those of Reps. Joe Knollenberg and Tim Walberg in Michigan.
Category: Morning line
Posted by Gordon Trowbridge on Tue, May 13, 2008 at 7:03 AMThe morning line: May 13 edition
The theme of the day for Sen. Barack Obama is "fence-mending."
It's the term we use in this morning's story on Obama's planned Wednesday visit to Macomb County and Grand Rapids. And it's no coincidence that the Tampa Tribune uses the same phrase in connection with next week's plan to spend three days in Florida.
The national media is focusing on the fact that trips to Missouri, Michigan and Florida represent a shift of focus to the general election, which is absolutely true. Just below the surface, though, is some frustration among Democrats with the long battle over the January primaries here and in Florida, and the lack of a resolution to their role in the nomination process. On top of that, in Michigan, Obama must explain to Michigan voters why his tough talk about the auto industry -- talk he regularly repeats on the campaign trail, shouldn't be seen as kicking the Michigan economy while it's down.
That job begins Wednesday, and with Michigan widely seen as a swing state in the fall, at least for now, it's a repair job that could determine who wins the White House.
Here's what else is going on in politics today:
COUNTRY ROADS: Sen. Hillary Clinton is heading for a big win in West Virginia, but as even her biggest supporters have begun to acknowledge, that probably can't change the tough math of the nomination fight.
WE'RE NOT HAPPY: The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows a deeply unhappy electorate that bodes ill for Republicans this fall, even as Sen. John McCain remains competitive for the fall.
UNFRIENDLY TRAIL: Sadly and unsurprisingly, campaign workers for Obama have run into racism on the campaign trail.
NOT JUST CLIMATE CHANGE: McCain makes a sharp break with President Bush on climate-change policy.
IN THE RACE: Former Rep. Bob Barr runs for the Libertarian nomination and could be a spolier in the fall.
AN OFFICIAL OPPONENT: Sen. Carl Levin will seek his sixth term while state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk seeks the upset of a lifetime.
MAYOR WATCH: It's unclear which way the Detroit City Countil will go today in a key vote on Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's political future.
Category: Morning line
Posted by Gordon Trowbridge on Mon, May 12, 2008 at 7:33 AMThe morning line: May 12 edition
Tuesday's West Virginia Democratic primary is going to be interesting. Not because the winner is a mystery -- she's not -- and not because of how it will affect the nomination fight -- it won't, at least not much.
But if Sen. Hillary Clinton reallu is poised for a 36-point victory in West Virginia, won't that illustrate anew Sen. Barack Obama's potential weaknesses in the fall? Clinton and her backers are almost certain to raise, even more loudly than they have, West Virginia's role as a potential swing state, and Obama's weaknesses among working-class white voters (though perhaps they'll be a bit more careful about wording).
Perhaps Obama will be able to write Tuesday off, pointing to the dogged determination of Clinton's supporters and the horrible demographics, from his perspective, of the state. But a blowout win of that magnitude certainly isn't going to convince Camp Clinton to give up now.
Here's what else is happening in politics:
HALFSIES: Clinton campaign chair Terry McAuliffe may -- or may not -- have have softened the campaign's position a bit on Michigan and Florida.
OUTSIDE ADVICE: John Edwards warns that Clinton must be careful not to damage Obama's chances in the fall.
THOSE WERE THE DAYS: The New Republic's Michael Crowley explains the Clintons' drive to remain in the race with one word: impeachment.
GREEN MCCAIN? The Washington Post takes a look at what it calls Sen. John McCain's mixed record on the environment.
GAS TAX: McCain supporter Carly Fiorina says McCain doesn't care much more than Clinton what economists think about the gas-tax holiday.
MAYOR WATCH: Maybe there is a silver lining to Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's legal troubles: Maybe all the lawyers involved will pay their back taxes now.
Category: Michigan polls
Posted by Gordon Trowbridge on Sun, May 11, 2008 at 3:29 PMRasumssen: Michigan tight at top, Levin ahead
New Rasmussen Reports automated surveys of Michigan find Michigan essentially tied between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama, and Sen. Carl Levin with a big lead in his re-election bid against state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk.
Rasmussen finds McCain head of Obama, 45 percent to 44 percent, well within the survey's 4 percentage point margin of error. That's largely unchanged from the company's March poll, which also showed McCain leading by a single point.
Levin leads Hoogendyk 54-37 in Rasmussen's Senate poll, demonstrating the uphill battle Hoogendyk, R-Kalamazoo, will face to unseat the five-term incumbent from Detroit. Both men are expected on Monday to file nominating petitions that would formally put them on the ballot this fall.
Category: Democratic delegates
Posted by Gordon Trowbridge on Fri, May 9, 2008 at 4:45 PMStupak: Clinton holding back on Michigan
Rep. Bart Stupak isn't endorsing a Democratic presidential candidate soon, and says Sen. Hillary Clinton has every right to remain in the race. But he is somewhat critical of Clinton's stance on Michigan's convention delegates.
"I'm not too sure Senator Clinton wants to see the Michigan issue resolved, because she can use that uncertainty," the Menominee Democrat said on Friday. "In a way, you would think she would want to get Michigan settled so she could claim the delegates and the popular votes. ... But the uncertainy helps her right now."
Still, Stupak isn't ready to join some nervous Democrats in calling on Clinton to end her campaign. "I think she has the means and I think she still has the desire," he said. "The only thing I'm asking if, from either side, if you're going to bring out something, you can run a comparison, but it still has to be respectful."
Stupak supported former Sen. John Edwards before Edwards ended his campaign, but has remained neutral since, and said he will not endorse a candidate until Michigan's delegation is seated.
Category: Democratic delegates
Posted by Gordon Trowbridge on Fri, May 9, 2008 at 8:11 AMWhy Obama won't seat Mich./Fla. -- yet
One of the big questions of the last couple days has been: Why doesn't Sen. Barack Obama just relent on Michigan and Florida's delegates? After all, agreeing to some sort of compromise -- or even the Clinton campaign's demand of full seating based on January contests -- almost certainly would not cost him his delegate lead. And there are benefits to taking the issue, a big talking point for Clinton supporters, off the table, and looking magnanimous in doing so.
Here's one reason why, estimates of delegate counts from the coming states and Obama's "magic number" -- the number of delegates he needs under various Michigan/Florida scenarios to claim a victory in the race for pledged delegates.
That's an important marker for the Obama campaign, as the candidate himself made clear in an interview yesterday with NBC's Brian Williams. The campaign hopes that on May 20, the night of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, it will be able to claim victory.
But as FiveThirtyEight.com's estimates make clear, if you add Michigan and Florida, Obama might not be able to make that claim for another two weeks, at the very end of the nominating process. That alone might be enough of a justification, within the Obama campaign, to hold off on any sort of deal on Michigan and Florida until the end of the primary season.
Category: Morning line
Posted by Gordon Trowbridge on Fri, May 9, 2008 at 7:18 AMThe morning line: May 9 edition
Sen. Hillary Clinton's demands on the Michigan-Florida issue are becoming more strident even as they increasingly fall on deaf ears.
There seems little appetite in the Democratic Party -- even in the states in question -- to fully seat delegations based on the disputed January primaries in each state. Michigan Democrats are now united by a plan that would dock Clinton some delegates because Sen. Barack Obama wasn't on the ballot. Florida officials are talking about a deal to seat half their pledged delegates.
But the letter Clinton released yesterday -- nominally to Obama, but actually to the entire party -- suggests that anything short of full impact for the January contests would be illegitimate. That's a powerful charge -- especially in a party for which the Florida vote in 2000 remains a sharp memory. Look for more editorials like this morning's in The New York Times, which says "Mrs. Clinton must drop her plans to fight to seat the delegations from Florida and Michigan".
Full text of the letter at the end of the post. Meanwhile, here's what else is happening in campaign news this morning:
SHOULD SHE STAY ...: Clinton aides may be looking for a way out of the race. Or not.
THE CASH PRIMARY: Money -- or the lack of it -- may be a determining factor.
MCCAIN IN MICHIGAN: Columnist Susan J. Demas asks why Sen. John McCain would come to economically ravaged Michigan and talk about slavery.
LEVIN vs. BIG OIL: David Shepardson reports Sen. Carl Levin's claim that oil companies are getting away with murder, and doesn't come right out against the controversial idea of a gas-tax holiday.
SMOKE 'EM WHILE YA GOT 'EM: The state Senate passes a smoking ban for bars and resraurants.
MAYOR WATCH: Yes, that photo of a young man in a dress was, in fact, Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. Glad we got that cleared up.
CLINTON'S LETTER:
Dear Senator Obama,
This has been an historic and exciting campaign. Millions of new voters have been brought into the process and their enthusiasm for the Democratic Party and the principles for which you and I have fought and continue to fight is unprecedented.
One of the foremost principles of our party is that citizens be allowed to vote and that those votes be counted. That principle is not currently being applied to the nearly 2.5 million people who voted in primaries in Florida and Michigan. Whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee will be hamstrung in the general election if a fair and quick resolution is not reached that ensures that the voices of these voters are heard. Our commitment now to this goal could be the difference between winning and losing in November.
I have consistently said that the votes cast in Florida and Michigan in January should be counted. We cannot ignore the fact that the people in those states took the time to be a part of this process and to make their preferences known. When efforts were untaken by leaders in those states to hold revotes to ensure that they had a voice in selecting our nominee, I supported those efforts. In Michigan, I supported a legislative effort to hold a revote that the Democratic National Committee said was in complete compliance with the party's rules. You did not support those efforts and your supporters in Michigan publically opposed them. In Florida a number of revote options were proposed. I am not aware of any that you supported. In 2000, the Republicans won an election by successfully opposing a fair counting of votes in Florida. As Democrats, we must reject any proposals that would do the same.
Your commitment to the voters of these states must be clearly stated and your support for a fair and quick resolution must be clearly demonstrated.
I am asking you to join me in working with representatives from Florida and Michigan and the Democratic National Committee to arrive at a solution that honors the votes of the millions of people who went to the polls in Florida and Michigan. It is not enough to simply seat their representatives at the convention in Denver. The people of these great states, like the people who have voted and are to vote in other states, must have a voice in selecting our party's nominee.
Sincerely,
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Category: Morning line
Posted by Gordon Trowbridge on Thu, May 8, 2008 at 6:57 AMThe morning line: May 8 edition
It doesn't add up.
Sen. Hillary Clinton's plan to ride Michigan and Florida's disputed delegates to the Democratic presidential nomination would seem to defy arithmethic. As we lay out in this morning's story, even the campaign's wildest dream would leave Clinton 100 delegates or more behind Sen. Barack Obama. With just over 400 delegates left, she would need something like two-thirds of the remaining delegates, both pledged delegates and superdelegates, to win.
And even then, she would need Democratic rules officials to back completely off their punishment of the two states -- something not even the state party in Michigan is seeking, after its decision on Wednesday to alter the mix of delegates from the Jan. 15 primary.
Briefly, here's a look at what else is happening in politics this morning:
MCCAIN IN MICHIGAN: During his campaign stop in Rochester, Republican nominee-in-waiting John McCain discussed the auto industry and other Michigan issues with The News's Mark Hornbeck.
NO HELP HERE: The Los Angeles Times finds at least one rules committee member and Clinton supporter who won't follow Clinton's wishes.
NO SURRENDER: Clinton did her best on Wednesday to make clear that she intends to stay in the race despite the formidable hurdles in front of her.
THE WHITE VOTE: Clinton campaign advisers made explicit references to Clinton's strength with white voters, a point the candidate herself raised in an interview with USA Today.
NOT SO INEVITABLE: Time takes a look at how the once-inevitable nominee managed to lose.
NO-PANDER ZONE: The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza examines the eviddence that Clinton's gas-tax holiday idea fell short of moving voters as she thought it would.
